Method Retroductive option assessment
Management Decision robustness
Process Any suitable
Description Identify the conditions that would need to be true for an option to be viable, then assess the likelihood of each condition being fulfilled.
Long Description (Churchman et al., 2025) The significance of adopting a realist ontology is that, unlike relativist ontology, it assumes that reality and truth are independent of context and the individual values, norms and beliefs of humans. Retroduction is a methodological alternative to more commonly used deductive and inductive research methods. The “retro” in retroduction implies a form of backcasting in which analysis considers a predefined theory, in this case that a certain energy source option could be feasible; identifies the conditions under which this theory would be true; and assesses the likelihood of these conditions being met. It is aligned with answer first / pyramid principle approaches used by strategy consultancies to assess strategic options.
Enabled True
Links (Churchman et al., 2025)
Criticality:
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100%
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75%